Several counties in California’s Central Valley are projected to experience significant agricultural losses each year due to natural disasters, according to a new report from Trace One, a product lifecycle management software company.
The 2025 edition of Trace One’s “Where Natural Disasters Are Having the Biggest Impact on the Nation’s Food Supply” highlights Fresno, Tulare, Madera, and Kings counties as among the U.S. counties with the highest expected agricultural losses from events such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes.
Fresno County is ranked 14th nationally for expected annual agricultural loss, with over $29.3 million in total anticipated losses and an average of $6,630 lost per farm each year. The county’s total agricultural value exceeds $7.4 billion. According to the study, “the worst natural hazard for agriculture in Fresno County is drought.”
Tulare County holds the 25th spot with an estimated annual loss of more than $14.3 million and about $3,873 per farm. The county’s overall agriculture value stands at $5.7 billion. The report notes that “Tulare County’s biggest threat of natural hazard for agriculture reported to be riverine flooding.”
Madera County ranks 39th with a projected annual loss of $9.2 million and approximately $7,360 per farm. Its total agricultural value is listed at $1.9 billion, with drought identified as its most significant threat.
Kings County is ranked 40th nationally for expected losses, facing over $9.1 million in total annual losses and about $10,580 per farm each year out of a total agricultural value exceeding $2.1 billion. Drought remains the leading hazard for Kings County farms.
Statewide figures show that California produces about 12% of all U.S. agricultural output but absorbs 37% of nationwide disaster-related farming losses—amounting to roughly $1.3 billion annually.
Santa Barbara leads all U.S. counties in expected yearly agricultural loss at more than $245 million or over $180,000 per farm.
Of the top 15 U.S. counties facing the greatest anticipated annual farming losses due to natural disasters, all but one are located in California.
The report also indicates that “on a per-farm basis, California reports an average loss of $20,528,” which is higher than any other state—a reflection of its focus on high-value crops like fruits, nuts and vegetables that are particularly vulnerable to water shortages.
Across the United States as a whole, farmers face more than $7.4 billion in expected annual disaster-related agricultural losses.
