Consumers across the United States are continuing to buy beef despite a significant rise in prices, driven by historically low supplies of cattle. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, ground beef now costs more than $6 per pound. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that beef and veal prices have increased by 13.9% compared to last year.
The USDA’s January Cattle Inventory report shows that as of January, there were 86.7 million head of cattle and calves in the country, down about 1% from 87.2 million in 2024. This marks the lowest number for the U.S. cattle population in 74 years. The number of beef cows that have calved fell to 27.9 million, also a 1% drop from last year and a record low since 1965.
Heifers expected to calve for beef cow replacement decreased by 2%, totaling 2.92 million animals.
In response to rising prices, President Trump announced plans in late October for the U.S. to import more beef from Argentina in an attempt to lower costs for consumers.
This decision has been met with strong opposition from American ranchers and industry groups such as the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA). The NCBA stated that while Argentina has shipped over $800 million worth of beef to the U.S., it has purchased only $7 million worth of American beef exports.
“The NCBA and its members cannot stand behind the President while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers by importing Argentinian beef in an attempt to influence prices,” said NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “It is imperative that President Trump and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins let the cattle markets work.”
Cindy Tews, managing member at Fresno Livestock Commission, noted unprecedented demand amid herd numbers not seen since 1951.
“We have an increase in population, and a decrease in overall numbers, although the yields for them have increased substantially since 1951,” Tews said. “Per head, there is more meat than their used to be.”
Tews explained that average carcass weights have risen even as herd sizes decline due to factors like urban expansion and droughts causing sell-offs among ranchers.
She added that higher prices do not encourage reinvestment into younger cattle herds because many ranchers are aging out of business; according to recent census data, the average age for U.S. farmers is now over 58 years old.
Despite cost increases at grocery stores, Tews said consumer demand remains high: “It’s a family favorite. When people go out and celebrate, they often go out and buy a steak… For us in the Valley, a tri-tip is very popular as a celebration meal.” She added that all types of protein are seeing elevated demand: “The rancher is just now seeing some profit, where for the longest time it’s been more of a break-even.”
Rizpah Bellard, founder of Nova Farming—a Fresno-based supplier—said their main products include ground beef and carne asada sold largely through institutions such as food banks or hospitals rather than retail outlets.
Bellard cited shortages among mother cows nationwide along with less imported beef from countries like Brazil or Canada contributing further upward pressure on prices throughout her supply chain—including packaging materials—which forced price hikes on her end.
“There is also increased price in labor, in fuel and in insurance. I’ve had to increase my prices to make sure my whole supply chain is covered, and I get a little profit on the back side too,” Bellard said.
With premium cuts becoming too expensive for many shoppers at grocery stores—and much product being diverted into ground meats—Bellard observed greater use of affordable options such as chuck rolls or carne asada instead of traditional steaks like porterhouse or T-bone cuts.
At Meat Up Market butcher shop in Fresno co-owner Cassi Maxey described how local processors run less frequently due to limited supplies: “There is just not a lot of beef going to processing facilities… so there is just less beef out there.” Even so she reported steady customer demand; her shop hasn’t raised ground-beef prices since opening five years ago but recently began offering hamburger patties mixed with pork as one way to manage costs creatively.
Maxey noted customers are increasingly willing try alternative cuts—such as flat-iron steak—instead New York strip steak seeking both value savings without sacrificing quality.
